Spread: Spurs (-18.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (29%) · Bulls at 97¢ · $580 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
7
Bulls 29%
$580.14
-$3.87
58.3¢ → 96.5¢
+65% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | Bullsavg 56¢ | $163.47 | $268.64 | +$105.17 | 38% 222-363 (585) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Bullsavg 60¢ | $249.16 | $232.48 | -$16.68 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Spursavg 40¢ | $38.65 | $42.52 | +$3.87 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Spursavg 44¢ | $126.72 | $30.24 | -$96.48 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Spursavg 43¢ | $3.5 | $3.59 | +$0.08 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Spursavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.2 | +$0.2 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Spursavg 10¢ | $0.5 | $0.48 | -$0.03 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
Invested
$163.47
Value
$268.64
PnL
+$105.17
Record
38%
222-363 (585)
Invested
$249.16
Value
$232.48
PnL
-$16.68
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$38.65
Value
$42.52
PnL
+$3.87
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$126.72
Value
$30.24
PnL
-$96.48
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.59
PnL
+$0.08
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.03
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.