Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 235.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 49¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$402.63

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 48.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,417

Combined PnL+$235.28

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,534

Combined PnL+$167.35

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$211.95	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 51.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$159.9	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 58¢	$431.6	$399.69	-$31.91	51% 487-460 (947)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$191.58	$229.23	+$37.65	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$235.33	$225.33	-$10	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$107.9	$118.76	+$10.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$127.43	$106.58	-$20.85
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$56.17	$57.89	+$1.72	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 64¢	$40.03	$52.58	+$12.55	37% 872-1456 (2328)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 42¢	$37.73	$48.51	+$10.78	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.95	$20.95	+$0	45% 2387-2862 (5249)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,554.79

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$211.95

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,184.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$159.9

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$431.6

Value

$399.69

PnL

-$31.91

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$191.58

Value

$229.23

PnL

+$37.65

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$235.33

Value

$225.33

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

Both legs:

Over$107.949.1¢+$10.86

Under$127.4355¢-$20.85

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.17

Value

$57.89

PnL

+$1.72

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$40.03

Value

$52.58

PnL

+$12.55

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$37.73

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$10.78

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.95

Value

$20.95

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.