Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$167.27

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 54¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$732.24

Total Shares1,569

Combined PnL+$122.25

Under4 traders

Total Value$656.87

Total Shares1,548

Combined PnL-$289.51

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 38.6¢	$555.83	$669.4	+$113.57	51% 470-452 (922)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 62¢	$621.31	$365.84	-$255.47	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 59.6¢	$309.85	$278.26	-$31.59	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$47.61	$52.69	+$5.08	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 60¢	$12.27	$10.94	-$1.33	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$6.56	$10.16	+$3.6	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.95	$1.83	-$1.13	70% 1714-741 (2455)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$555.83

Value

$669.4

PnL

+$113.57

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$621.31

Value

$365.84

PnL

-$255.47

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$309.85

Value

$278.26

PnL

-$31.59

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.61

Value

$52.69

PnL

+$5.08

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$12.27

Value

$10.94

PnL

-$1.33

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.56

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$3.6

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$1.13

Record

70%

1714-741 (2455)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.