Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 49¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

-$82.2

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 48.5¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares11,318

Combined PnL+$617.26

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,703

Combined PnL-$699.46

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$94.27	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$5.5K	$5.9K	+$405.32
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$4.7K	$4.4K	-$311.05
SH shaillakhani	Overavg 46¢	$4.5K	$5.0K	+$538.04	5% 10-202 (212)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 55¢	$5.5K	$4.8K	-$650	26% 39-112 (151)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 43.8¢	$392.84	$470.86	+$78.02	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 55.3¢	$365.87	$320.78	-$45.09	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
nigiri99	Overavg 43¢	$186.19	$181.86	-$4.33	51% 499-470 (969)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 39¢	$76.43	$82.31	+$5.88	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 59.5¢	$23.8	$19.4	-$4.4	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
HI hi774c<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.1	-$0.15	21% 158-579 (737)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.1	-$0.2	40% 614-914 (1528)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$0.93	$0.96	+$0.03	56% 5073-4021 (9094)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,157.28

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$94.27

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Both legs:

Under$5,476.4854¢+$405.32

Over$4,680.845¢-$311.05

shaillakhani

Over

Invested

$4,500

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$538.04

Record

10-202 (212)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,500

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$650

Record

26%

39-112 (151)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$392.84

Value

$470.86

PnL

+$78.02

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$365.87

Value

$320.78

PnL

-$45.09

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$186.19

Value

$181.86

PnL

-$4.33

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$76.43

Value

$82.31

PnL

+$5.88

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.8

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$4.4

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

hi774c<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

21%

158-579 (737)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.