Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 225.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 55¢ · $721 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$721.12
-$2.96
55.2¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 52.3¢ | $525.19 | $410.04 | +$15.49 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.3¢ | $215.43 | $224.69 | +$15.78 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.6¢ | $185.64 | $185.35 | -$0.29 | |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 55¢ | $153.73 | $150.85 | -$2.89 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $92.21 | $92.21 | +$0 | 58% 3436-2532 (5968) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 61.2¢ | $47.61 | $45.93 | -$1.68 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.6¢ | $9.84 | $9.83 | -$0.01 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $6.56 | $7.52 | +$0.96 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $3.17 | $3.73 | +$0.56 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $0.92 | $1.02 | +$0.1 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
Invested
$525.19
Value
$410.04
PnL
+$15.49
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.73
Value
$150.85
PnL
-$2.89
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
Invested
$92.21
Value
$92.21
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
3436-2532 (5968)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$45.93
PnL
-$1.68
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
Invested
$6.56
Value
$7.52
PnL
+$0.96
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$0.56
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
RN1<$100Invested
$0.92
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.