Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 221.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$22.41

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 83.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,494

Combined PnL-$165.23

Under6 traders

Total Value$267.45

Total Shares965

Combined PnL+$187.64

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 84.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$171.95	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 28¢	$144.6	$144.6	-$0	51% 487-460 (947)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 70¢	$95.23	$97.95	+$2.72	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 10.1¢	$535.67	$93.74	+$183.5	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 62¢	$72.74	$84.47	+$11.73	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 84¢	$81.5	$52.1	-$8.15	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$15.01	$22.12	+$7.11	61% 1414-894 (2308)
RN1<$100	Overavg 65.7¢	$4.37	$4.79	+$0.42	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$3.04	$4.48	+$1.44	37% 872-1456 (2328)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$5.28	$1.92	-$3.36	37% 937-1581 (2518)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.65	$0.6	-$1.05	36% 925-1612 (2537)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,214.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$171.95

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$144.6

Value

$144.6

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$95.23

Value

$97.95

PnL

+$2.72

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$535.67

Value

$93.74

PnL

+$183.5

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$72.74

Value

$84.47

PnL

+$11.73

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$81.5

Value

$52.1

PnL

-$8.15

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.01

Value

$22.12

PnL

+$7.11

Record

61%

1414-894 (2308)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.42

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.04

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$1.44

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.28

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$3.36

Record

37%

937-1581 (2518)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$1.05

Record

36%

925-1612 (2537)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.