Spread: Kings (-1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (75%) · Trail Blazers at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Kings<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 75%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$59.04

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 99.2¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kings1%

Trail Blazers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,561

Combined PnL+$20.81

Kings2 traders

Total Value$10.95

Total Shares1,369

Combined PnL-$79.85

Trail Blazers — 75%Kings — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 90.8¢	$1.5K	$845.74	+$33.62	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 88.5¢	$991.4	$496.66	-$38.31	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
TA takeormake<$100	Trail Blazersavg 84.4¢	$70.87	$83.62	+$12.74	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
38 38791873984189<$100	Trail Blazersavg 88¢	$59.84	$67.69	+$7.85	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 92¢	$50.6	$54.76	+$4.15	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 6.6¢	$88.72	$10.76	-$77.96	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
SE sentrio<$100	Trail Blazersavg 92¢	$9.2	$9.96	+$0.76	43% 933-1261 (2194)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kingsavg 8.5¢	$2.08	$0.2	-$1.88	49% 1915-2022 (3937)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,547.26

Value

$845.74

PnL

+$33.62

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$991.4

Value

$496.66

PnL

-$38.31

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

takeormake<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$70.87

Value

$83.62

PnL

+$12.74

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

38791873984189<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$59.84

Value

$67.69

PnL

+$7.85

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$50.6

Value

$54.76

PnL

+$4.15

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$88.72

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$77.96

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

sentrio<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.76

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.08

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.88

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.