Spread: Trail Blazers (-26.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (57%) · Kings at 87¢ · $803 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
7
Kings 57%
$803.26
$89.26
88.3¢ → 86.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Kingsavg 88.1¢ | $396.4 | $389.25 | -$7.15 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Kingsavg 89¢ | $173.55 | $173.55 | +$0 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kingsavg 88.5¢ | $78.76 | $79.65 | +$0.89 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
38 38791873984189 | Kingsavg 88¢ | $299.04 | $78.87 | +$0.83 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 11.9¢ | $58.57 | $66.41 | +$7.84 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 12¢ | $43.08 | $14.08 | +$86.5 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 11¢ | $1.1 | $1.45 | +$0.35 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
RN1Invested
$396.4
Value
$389.25
PnL
-$7.15
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$173.55
Value
$173.55
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
Invested
$78.76
Value
$79.65
PnL
+$0.89
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
Invested
$299.04
Value
$78.87
PnL
+$0.83
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$58.57
Value
$66.41
PnL
+$7.84
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$43.08
Value
$14.08
PnL
+$86.5
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.35
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.