Spread: Trail Blazers (-22.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (80%) · Kings at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 80%
$1.6K
-$7.29
82.6¢ → 84.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 85%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Kingsavg 83¢ | $830 | $830 | +$0 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
 nigiri99 | Kingsavg 82¢ | $619.1 | $626.65 | +$7.55 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Trail Blazersavg 17¢ | $170 | $155 | -$15 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
 RN1<$100 | Kingsavg 82¢ | $8.2 | $8.3 | +$0.1 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kingsavg 82¢ | $12.77 | $4.63 | +$0.06 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
Invested
$830
Value
$830
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
nigiri99Invested
$619.1
Value
$626.65
PnL
+$7.55
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$170
Value
$155
PnL
-$15
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
RN1<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$12.77
Value
$4.63
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.