Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Trail Blazers (55%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (55%) · Kings at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers55¢Kings45¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$21.67

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 45.5¢

-26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers55%

Kings46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$706.82

Total Shares1,056

Combined PnL+$116.53

Kings6 traders

Total Value$458.12

Total Shares892

Combined PnL-$94.86

Trail Blazers — 45%Kings — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKings 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46.2¢	$442.43	$398.26	-$44.17	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.2¢	$239.71	$202.45	-$37.26
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 63.2¢	$202.72	$195.81	-$6.91
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 47.8¢	$257.55	$306.06	+$48.51	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 44.7¢	$196.09	$237.08	+$40.99	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kingsavg 68¢	$164.81	$147.42	-$17.38	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Kingsavg 63.8¢	$193.39	$142.41	-$50.98	45% 430-535 (965)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 67¢	$110.05	$105.77	-$4.28	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Kingsavg 56¢	$100.66	$84.48	-$16.18	41% 151-215 (366)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kingsavg 55.7¢	$64.78	$54.65	-$10.13	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40.6¢	$51.9	$52.91	+$29.61	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$23.5	$23	-$0.5	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kingsavg 57.9¢	$5.85	$6.16	+$0.31	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Trail Blazersavg 36¢	$3.3	$5	+$1.7	50% 3702-3662 (7364)

RN1ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$442.43

Value

$398.26

PnL

-$44.17

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$239.7146.2¢-$37.26

Kings$202.7263.2¢-$6.91

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$257.55

Value

$306.06

PnL

+$48.51

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$196.09

Value

$237.08

PnL

+$40.99

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kings

Invested

$164.81

Value

$147.42

PnL

-$17.38

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

justaluckydudeCTR

Kings

Invested

$193.39

Value

$142.41

PnL

-$50.98

Record

45%

430-535 (965)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$110.05

Value

$105.77

PnL

-$4.28

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Kings

Invested

$100.66

Value

$84.48

PnL

-$16.18

Record

41%

151-215 (366)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$64.78

Value

$54.65

PnL

-$10.13

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$51.9

Value

$52.91

PnL

+$29.61

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

suntoriCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

6512395314597884<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.3

Value

PnL

+$1.7

Record

50%

3702-3662 (7364)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKings 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.