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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5

Resolved Under. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Over 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$139.25

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$718.04

Total Shares718

Combined PnL+$249.66

Over2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,059

Combined PnL-$388.91

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$4.7K	$338.44	$-4.3K	54% 18314-15419 (33733)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.2¢	$4.5K	—	$-4.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.1¢	$189.86	$338.44	+$148.58
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 66¢	$349.6	$349.6	+$118.86	50% 4491-4414 (8905)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 73.9¢	$127.93	$173	+$45.07	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
NM NM-P	Underavg 54¢	$73.96	$136.96	+$63	64% 10122-5677 (15799)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 46¢	$182.77	—	-$182.77	51% 2012-1944 (3956)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44.9¢	$206.14	—	-$206.14	58% 47297-34106 (81403)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$22.65	$41	+$18.35	60% 4637-3040 (7677)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 75¢	$13.12	$17.49	+$4.37	56% 8434-6558 (14992)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Invested

$4,654.67

Value

$338.44

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

54%

18314-15419 (33733)

Both legs:

Over$4,464.8142.2¢$-4.5K

Under$189.8656.1¢+$148.58

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Invested

$349.6

Value

$349.6

PnL

+$118.86

Record

50%

4491-4414 (8905)

Invested

$127.93

Value

$173

PnL

+$45.07

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

Invested

$73.96

Value

$136.96

PnL

+$63

Record

64%

10122-5677 (15799)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$182.77

Value

—

PnL

-$182.77

Record

51%

2012-1944 (3956)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$206.14

Value

—

PnL

-$206.14

Record

58%

47297-34106 (81403)

SunlineTicker<$100

Invested

$22.65

Value

$41

PnL

+$18.35

Record

60%

4637-3040 (7677)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$4.37

Record

56%

8434-6558 (14992)

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdd3429ed...33e1c1

Slug

nba-phi-cle-2026-11-06-total-233pt5

Traders in this Market

HomeRunHazard

Arbitrage — excluded

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under — $349.6

Flaznorp

Under — $173

NM-P

Under — $136.96

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over — $0

VeryLucky888

Over — $0

SunlineTicker

Under — $41

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under — $17.49

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