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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 253.5

Resolved Under. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Over 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$343.14

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,019

Combined PnL-$498.26

Under4 traders

Total Value$636.64

Total Shares637

Combined PnL+$155.11

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 24.6¢	$2.0K	—	-$484.99	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 76.8¢	$558.49	$521	-$37.49	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76.8¢	$400.28	$521	+$120.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.6¢	$158.15	—	-$158.16
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 78¢	$2.7K	$349.19	+$75.98	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 69.3¢	$874.84	$120	+$35.05	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 74¢	$68.35	$93	+$24.65	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 70.7¢	$190.08	$74.45	+$19.45	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$8.47	—	-$8.47	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$4.79	—	-$4.79	50% 5216-5115 (10331)

justaluckydudeCTR

Invested

$1,969.8

Value

—

PnL

-$484.99

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$558.49

Value

$521

PnL

-$37.49

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Under$400.2876.8¢+$120.67

Over$158.1524.6¢-$158.16

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$2,715.42

Value

$349.19

PnL

+$75.98

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Invested

$874.84

Value

$120

PnL

+$35.05

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$68.35

Value

$93

PnL

+$24.65

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

Invested

$190.08

Value

$74.45

PnL

+$19.45

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.47

Value

—

PnL

-$8.47

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

—

PnL

-$4.79

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1a061a66...ecc982

Slug

nba-phi-chi-2026-11-08-total-253pt5

Traders in this Market

justaluckydude

Over — $0

Anon455

Arbitrage — excluded

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under — $349.19

38791873984189

Under — $120

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under — $93

Pan9X

Under — $74.45

MadridTime

Over — $0

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over — $0

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