76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 51¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$144.82

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 50.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares12,058

Combined PnL-$0.45

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares14,432

Combined PnL-$144.37

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$22.55	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
nehcnehc	Overavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$147.71	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 48¢	$3.0K	$1.0K	-$33.63	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$783.79	$772.37	-$11.42	49% 27-28 (55)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 52.1¢	$684.58	$673	-$11.58	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49¢	$516.59	$532.4	+$15.81	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$518	$526.75	+$8.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$339.5	$353.5	+$14
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$178.5	$173.25	-$5.25
NM NM-P	Overavg 48¢	$420	$441.88	+$21.88	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$414.62	$412.5	-$2.12	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$226.38	$233.31	+$6.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$188.24	$179.19	-$9.05
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 50¢	$133.49	$134.82	+$1.33	49% 507-531 (1038)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 48¢	$773.89	$63.15	-$2.08	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$15	$7.33	+$0.02	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$5,742.08

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$22.55

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$4,726.99

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$147.71

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$2,957.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$33.63

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$783.79

Value

$772.37

PnL

-$11.42

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$684.58

Value

$673

PnL

-$11.58

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$516.59

Value

$532.4

PnL

+$15.81

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$518

Value

$526.75

PnL

+$8.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Invested

$420

Value

$441.88

PnL

+$21.88

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$414.62

Value

$412.5

PnL

-$2.12

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Both legs:

Over$226.3849¢+$6.93

Under$188.2452¢-$9.05

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$133.49

Value

$134.82

PnL

+$1.33

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$773.89

Value

$63.15

PnL

-$2.08

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$7.33

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.