76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over86¢Under14¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$71.9

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 85.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over86%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$953.15

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL+$149.86

Under5 traders

Total Value$512.48

Total Shares1,786

Combined PnL-$77.96

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Overavg 68¢	$484.69	$526.68	+$106.98	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 76.3¢	$328.2	$367.89	+$39.69	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 82.5¢	$382.72	$293.21	-$89.52	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.5¢	$207.47	$215.02	+$7.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.5¢	$175.25	$78.19	-$97.06
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 38.1¢	$256.83	$235.9	-$20.93	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 37¢	$101.06	$95.6	-$5.46	49% 115-122 (237)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 24.3¢	$134.59	$80.16	-$54.44	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$55.87	$57.52	+$1.64	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$42.09	$43.31	+$1.22	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RN1<$100	Overavg 80.5¢	$29.5	$31.34	+$1.84	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 62¢	$42.24	$18.45	+$0.95	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 62¢	$13.52	$8.79	+$0.41	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$484.69

Value

$526.68

PnL

+$106.98

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$328.2

Value

$367.89

PnL

+$39.69

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$382.72

Value

$293.21

PnL

-$89.52

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

Both legs:

Over$207.4782.5¢+$7.54

Under$175.2532.5¢-$97.06

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$256.83

Value

$235.9

PnL

-$20.93

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$101.06

Value

$95.6

PnL

-$5.46

Record

49%

115-122 (237)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$134.59

Value

$80.16

PnL

-$54.44

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.87

Value

$57.52

PnL

+$1.64

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.09

Value

$43.31

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$29.5

Value

$31.34

PnL

+$1.84

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$42.24

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$13.52

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.