76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 225.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 94¢ · $843 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 25%
$842.75
$55.64
81.1¢ → 94¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 81.6¢ | $608.76 | $701.46 | +$92.7 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $63.83 | $49.15 | +$1.28 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 25¢ | $124.46 | $28.63 | -$2.49 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $56.23 | $25.95 | -$30.28 | 57% 17059-13037 (30096) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $26.82 | $23.72 | -$3.09 | 54% 3943-3319 (7262) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $29 | $6.67 | -$0.87 | 52% 27270-24782 (52052) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $7.02 | $6.21 | -$0.81 | 45% 14433-17740 (32173) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $1.76 | $0.96 | -$0.8 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
Invested
$608.76
Value
$701.46
PnL
+$92.7
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$63.83
Value
$49.15
PnL
+$1.28
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
Invested
$124.46
Value
$28.63
PnL
-$2.49
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
Invested
$56.23
Value
$25.95
PnL
-$30.28
Record
57%
17059-13037 (30096)
Invested
$26.82
Value
$23.72
PnL
-$3.09
Record
54%
3943-3319 (7262)
Invested
$29
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$0.87
Record
52%
27270-24782 (52052)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$7.02
Value
$6.21
PnL
-$0.81
Record
45%
14433-17740 (32173)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.