Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors 76ers (76%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (58%) · Bulls at 24¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

76ers76¢Bulls24¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$164.19

Smart Money Entry

35.1¢ → 24¢

-32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers76%

Bulls24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,344

Combined PnL-$186.01

76ers5 traders

Total Value$445

Total Shares534

Combined PnL+$21.82

Bulls — 58%76ers — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	76ersavg 63.4¢	$532.34	$533.68	+$1.34	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 63.4¢	$291.25	$339.93	+$48.68
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 32.4¢	$241.09	$193.75	-$47.33
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bullsavg 35¢	$996.94	$343.95	-$4.98	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
VE VenusianCTR	Bullsavg 35.2¢	$465.57	$343.66	-$121.91	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
AN Anon455	76ersavg 63¢	$214.01	$233.12	+$19.11	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bullsavg 34.6¢	$216.44	$202.37	-$14.07	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 65.1¢	$103.05	$117.16	+$14.11
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 34.6¢	$113.39	$85.21	-$28.18
LI LimousinCTR	Bullsavg 34.6¢	$117.39	$117.01	-$0.38	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
nigiri99<$100	76ersavg 66¢	$96.88	$96.09	-$0.8	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bullsavg 37¢	$101.33	$71.24	-$30.09	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
RN1CTR<$100	Bullsavg 33.7¢	$78.88	$61.72	-$17.15	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 64.7¢	$61.13	$54.81	+$0.81	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 34¢	$45.19	$45.21	+$0.02	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 77.5¢	$37.2	$39.36	+$2.16	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Bullsavg 34¢	$34	$22.5	-$11.5	53% 14337-12645 (26982)
65 6512395314597884<$100	76ersavg 74¢	$21.09	$21.63	+$0.53	51% 5683-5537 (11220)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$532.34

Value

$533.68

PnL

+$1.34

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

Both legs:

76ers$291.2563.4¢+$48.68

Bulls$241.0932.4¢-$47.33

FlaznorpCTR

Bulls

Invested

$996.94

Value

$343.95

PnL

-$4.98

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

VenusianCTR

Bulls

Invested

$465.57

Value

$343.66

PnL

-$121.91

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

Anon455

76ers

Invested

$214.01

Value

$233.12

PnL

+$19.11

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$216.44

Value

$202.37

PnL

-$14.07

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

76ers$103.0565.1¢+$14.11

Bulls$113.3934.6¢-$28.18

LimousinCTR

Bulls

Invested

$117.39

Value

$117.01

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

nigiri99<$100

76ers

Invested

$96.88

Value

$96.09

PnL

-$0.8

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bulls

Invested

$101.33

Value

$71.24

PnL

-$30.09

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

RN1CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$78.88

Value

$61.72

PnL

-$17.15

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$61.13

Value

$54.81

PnL

+$0.81

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$45.19

Value

$45.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$37.2

Value

$39.36

PnL

+$2.16

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$34

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$11.5

Record

53%

14337-12645 (26982)

6512395314597884<$100

76ers

Invested

$21.09

Value

$21.63

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.