Spread: 76ers (-11.5)

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (36%) · Bulls at 64¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

76ers37¢Bulls63¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$83.65

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 63.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

5 of 14 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers37%

Bulls64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,481

Combined PnL+$228.78

76ers9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,400

Combined PnL-$145.13

Bulls — 36%76ers — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bullsavg 56.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$139.2	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	76ersavg 42.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$82	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 42.5¢	$661.7	$567.7	-$94
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 62¢	$496	$508	+$12
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 51.4¢	$498.22	$614.97	+$116.75	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 45¢	$554.32	$535.7	-$18.62	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 45¢	$355.72	$288.51	-$67.21
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$198.59	$247.19	+$48.59
RN1ARB<$100	Bullsavg 49.5¢	$340.75	$377.79	+$37.04	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 49.5¢	$205.24	$263.35	+$58.11
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 43.2¢	$135.51	$114.44	-$21.07
AN Anon455CTR	76ersavg 46.3¢	$478.43	$377.26	-$101.18	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
BI biying88888CTR	76ersavg 38¢	$304	$292	-$12	47% 242-268 (510)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 41¢	$185.48	$187.74	+$2.26	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bullsavg 56.4¢	$196.91	$169.27	-$27.65	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 41¢	$111.22	$160.52	+$49.3	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
TA takeormakeCTR	76ersavg 49.3¢	$193.59	$147.99	-$45.6	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 49.7¢	$118.9	$87.38	-$31.52	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
PA Pan9XCTR	76ersavg 47.4¢	$129.09	$61.21	-$5.89	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	76ersavg 41¢	$18.74	$18.97	+$0.23	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
VeryLucky888<$100	Bullsavg 56¢	$18.18	$10.64	+$0.45	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bullsavg 58¢	$5.82	$5.85	+$0.03	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	76ersavg 49¢	$2.9	$2.16	-$0.74	57% 24685-18276 (42961)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bulls

Invested

$1,229.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$139.2

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,157.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$82

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

Both legs:

Invested

$498.22

Value

$614.97

PnL

+$116.75

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$554.32

Value

$535.7

PnL

-$18.62

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Both legs:

76ers$355.7245¢-$67.21

Bulls$198.5951¢+$48.59

RN1ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$340.75

Value

$377.79

PnL

+$37.04

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Both legs:

Bulls$205.2449.5¢+$58.11

76ers$135.5143.2¢-$21.07

Anon455CTR

76ers

Invested

$478.43

Value

$377.26

PnL

-$101.18

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

biying88888CTR

76ers

Invested

$304

Value

$292

PnL

-$12

Record

47%

242-268 (510)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$185.48

Value

$187.74

PnL

+$2.26

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bulls

Invested

$196.91

Value

$169.27

PnL

-$27.65

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$111.22

Value

$160.52

PnL

+$49.3

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

takeormakeCTR

76ers

Invested

$193.59

Value

$147.99

PnL

-$45.6

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$118.9

Value

$87.38

PnL

-$31.52

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Pan9XCTR

76ers

Invested

$129.09

Value

$61.21

PnL

-$5.89

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

sentrioCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$18.74

Value

$18.97

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bulls

Invested

$18.18

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$0.45

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bulls

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

ghorrockCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.74

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

5 of 14 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.