Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$35.44

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 97.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,594

Combined PnL+$30.88

Over3 traders

Total Value$35.06

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL-$66.32

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 92.7¢	$1.3K	$687.9	-$28.18	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Underavg 84.8¢	$458.65	$525.04	+$66.39	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 91.6¢	$150.85	$156.12	+$5.27	49% 786-829 (1615)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 91¢	$127.33	$116.14	-$11.19	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 7.3¢	$87.9	$29.91	-$57.99	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 89¢	$20.87	$19.47	-$1.41	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 6.9¢	$9.52	$4.1	-$5.42	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 9.4¢	$3.96	$1.05	-$2.91	49% 973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,261.11

Value

$687.9

PnL

-$28.18

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Under

Invested

$458.65

Value

$525.04

PnL

+$66.39

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$150.85

Value

$156.12

PnL

+$5.27

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$127.33

Value

$116.14

PnL

-$11.19

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.9

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$57.99

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$20.87

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$1.41

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.52

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$5.42

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.96

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$2.91

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.