Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$308.38

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 88¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,914

Combined PnL-$116.48

Over4 traders

Total Value$330.31

Total Shares2,325

Combined PnL-$191.9

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 76.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$92.99	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Underavg 83.5¢	$398.35	$306.05	-$92.3	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 89.4¢	$329.73	$236.16	-$93.57	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 21.8¢	$473.01	$197.72	-$100.88	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 20¢	$200	$105	-$95	53% 305-275 (580)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 88.7¢	$78.9	$56.96	-$21.94	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$17.81	$22.11	+$4.3	36% 410-719 (1129)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 90¢	$12.91	$11.25	-$1.66	55% 729-596 (1325)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 15.9¢	$5.8	$5.48	-$0.32	49% 973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,500.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$92.99

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Under

Invested

$398.35

Value

$306.05

PnL

-$92.3

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$329.73

Value

$236.16

PnL

-$93.57

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$473.01

Value

$197.72

PnL

-$100.88

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$105

PnL

-$95

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$78.9

Value

$56.96

PnL

-$21.94

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.81

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$4.3

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.91

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$1.66

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.