Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$553.56

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 90¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$970.18

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL-$243.34

Over8 traders

Total Value$237.24

Total Shares1,981

Combined PnL-$310.21

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 65¢	$827.09	$803.81	-$23.28	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$329.38	$405.4	+$76.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$497.71	$398.42	-$99.29
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 72.2¢	$1.1K	$583.96	-$231.2	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Underavg 83.8¢	$244.21	$246.1	+$4.11	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 26.2¢	$312.94	$137.2	-$175.74	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 85¢	$96.66	$90.11	-$6.55	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$66.28	$26.28	-$40	32% 444-952 (1396)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 56.2¢	$28.02	$25.94	-$2.08	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$66.28	$23.82	-$42.46	31% 441-967 (1408)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$66.28	$23.82	-$42.46	31% 444-971 (1415)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 60.2¢	$37.01	$18.35	-$3.66	49% 973-998 (1971)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$15	$12	-$3	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.12	$9.12	+$0	53% 305-275 (580)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 88¢	$9.67	$5.71	-$3.96	21% 63-235 (298)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2.22	$2.66	+$0.44	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.33	$2.33	-$7	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$827.09

Value

$803.81

PnL

-$23.28

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Over$329.3839¢+$76.01

Under$497.7165¢-$99.29

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,110.8

Value

$583.96

PnL

-$231.2

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Under

Invested

$244.21

Value

$246.1

PnL

+$4.11

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$312.94

Value

$137.2

PnL

-$175.74

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$96.66

Value

$90.11

PnL

-$6.55

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.28

Value

$26.28

PnL

-$40

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$28.02

Value

$25.94

PnL

-$2.08

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.28

Value

$23.82

PnL

-$42.46

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.28

Value

$23.82

PnL

-$42.46

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$37.01

Value

$18.35

PnL

-$3.66

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$12

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$9.67

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$3.96

Record

21%

63-235 (298)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.33

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$7

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.