Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 71¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$147.89

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 71¢

+25% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,774

Combined PnL-$102.2

Over8 traders

Total Value$294.51

Total Shares771

Combined PnL-$45.69

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$832.5	$991.3	+$158.8	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.7¢	$446.5	$604.07	+$157.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.4¢	$386	$387.23	+$1.23
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 57.6¢	$1.6K	$944.35	-$125.8	55% 843-701 (1544)
AN Anon455	Underavg 42¢	$424.72	$616.5	+$191.77	46% 200-233 (433)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 67.4¢	$322.57	$349.32	+$29.63	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.4¢	$219.84	$215.14	-$4.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.6¢	$100.89	$134.18	+$34.33
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 74.5¢	$321.84	$310.27	-$11.57	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 57.4¢	$93.16	$112.54	+$19.38	36% 410-719 (1129)
nigiri99	Underavg 79.4¢	$296.88	$112.2	-$184.68	52% 235-217 (452)
VE Venusian	Underavg 42.5¢	$63.33	$108.7	+$45.37	31% 444-971 (1415)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 38¢	$132.56	$94.19	-$38.37	31% 438-969 (1407)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 70¢	$468.54	$37.46	-$34.2	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$22.95	$36.5	+$13.55	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$36.54	$34.02	-$2.52	53% 305-275 (580)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 61.5¢	$57.71	$25.35	-$32.36	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$91.1	$19.44	+$7.93	49% 786-829 (1615)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$5.2	$9.1	+$3.9	39% 233-367 (600)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$29.84	$7.47	+$0.9	55% 729-596 (1325)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 34¢	$7.48	$6.6	-$0.88	45% 304-377 (681)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$8.24	$6.3	+$3.06	49% 973-998 (1971)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.21	$5.54	+$0.33	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 43¢	$4.3	$3	-$1.3	31% 441-967 (1408)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 78¢	$3.9	$1.5	-$2.4	40% 438-657 (1095)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$832.5

Value

$991.3

PnL

+$158.8

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$446.544.7¢+$157.57

Over$38639.4¢+$1.23

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,582.8

Value

$944.35

PnL

-$125.8

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$424.72

Value

$616.5

PnL

+$191.77

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$322.57

Value

$349.32

PnL

+$29.63

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Under$219.8467.4¢-$4.7

Over$100.8925.6¢+$34.33

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$321.84

Value

$310.27

PnL

-$11.57

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$93.16

Value

$112.54

PnL

+$19.38

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$296.88

Value

$112.2

PnL

-$184.68

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$63.33

Value

$108.7

PnL

+$45.37

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$132.56

Value

$94.19

PnL

-$38.37

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$468.54

Value

$37.46

PnL

-$34.2

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$22.95

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$13.55

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.54

Value

$34.02

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.71

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$32.36

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$91.1

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$7.93

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$3.9

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.84

Value

$7.47

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$7.48

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$0.88

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.24

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$3.06

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0.33

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$4.3

Value

PnL

-$1.3

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.9

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$2.4

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.