Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 213.5

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$957.23

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 94¢

+68% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over13 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,759

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Under10 traders

Total Value$727.11

Total Shares5,518

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

59% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 62% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 55.7¢	$835.39	$1.5K	+$645.72	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
nigiri99	Overavg 54.3¢	$736.28	$1.3K	+$603.45	52% 235-217 (452)
AN Anon455	Overavg 48.7¢	$623.64	$1.3K	+$641.95	46% 200-233 (433)
RN1	Overavg 62.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$269.31	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 67.7¢	$854.35	$774.45	-$48.72	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 52¢	$1.6K	$743.62	+$600.3	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 51.8¢	$239.67	$456.92	+$217.25	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$387.51	$334.25	-$53.25	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 51.9¢	$1.5K	$195.4	$-1.3K	29% 16-39 (55)
TA takeormake	Overavg 47.9¢	$59.33	$115.88	+$56.55	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49.7¢	$107.31	$98.82	+$57.62	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 44¢	$110	$47.5	-$62.5	55% 218-176 (394)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$300	$40.6	-$259.4	48% 74-80 (154)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$245.75	$34.62	-$211.13	31% 441-967 (1408)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$67.99	$28.79	-$39.2	52% 597-541 (1138)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 55.5¢	$17.48	$25.5	+$11.15	55% 729-596 (1325)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$179.67	$23.96	-$155.71	31% 438-969 (1407)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 58¢	$13.81	$23.52	+$9.71	36% 410-719 (1129)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 36.7¢	$88.01	$15.47	-$72.54	39% 233-367 (600)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 81¢	$12.15	$14.03	+$1.88	49% 973-998 (1971)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 54¢	$4.76	$8.71	+$3.95	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 28.1¢	$98.92	$5.58	+$17.4	49% 786-829 (1615)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$0.95	-$1.4	35% 376-688 (1064)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$835.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$645.72

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$736.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$603.45

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$623.64

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$641.95

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,004.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$269.31

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$854.35

Value

$774.45

PnL

-$48.72

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,626.31

Value

$743.62

PnL

+$600.3

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$239.67

Value

$456.92

PnL

+$217.25

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$387.51

Value

$334.25

PnL

-$53.25

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$1,470.56

Value

$195.4

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

29%

16-39 (55)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$59.33

Value

$115.88

PnL

+$56.55

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$107.31

Value

$98.82

PnL

+$57.62

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$110

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$62.5

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$300

Value

$40.6

PnL

-$259.4

Record

48%

74-80 (154)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$245.75

Value

$34.62

PnL

-$211.13

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.99

Value

$28.79

PnL

-$39.2

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$17.48

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$11.15

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$179.67

Value

$23.96

PnL

-$155.71

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$13.81

Value

$23.52

PnL

+$9.71

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.01

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$72.54

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$12.15

Value

$14.03

PnL

+$1.88

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$3.95

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.92

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$17.4

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$1.4

Record

35%

376-688 (1064)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

59% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 62% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.