Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 203.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 99¢ · $564 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$563.56
-$9.69
84.9¢ → 99.1¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Overavg 76¢ | $152 | $198.2 | +$46.2 | 45% 436-533 (969) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 89¢ | $169.1 | $189.15 | +$20.05 | 55% 843-701 (1544) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 91¢ | $199.97 | $167.15 | -$32.82 | 50% 3334-3292 (6626) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $13.75 | $4.95 | -$8.8 | 38% 99-159 (258) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 10.1¢ | $35.93 | $3.21 | -$32.72 | 57% 4155-3181 (7336) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $0.45 | -$0.8 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $0.45 | -$0.8 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
dips.Invested
$152
Value
$198.2
PnL
+$46.2
Record
45%
436-533 (969)
Invested
$169.1
Value
$189.15
PnL
+$20.05
Record
55%
843-701 (1544)
Invested
$199.97
Value
$167.15
PnL
-$32.82
Record
50%
3334-3292 (6626)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$8.8
Record
38%
99-159 (258)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$35.93
Value
$3.21
PnL
-$32.72
Record
57%
4155-3181 (7336)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.8
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.8
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.