Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 201.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$265.08

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 99.6¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,075

Combined PnL+$456.66

Under6 traders

Total Value$29.56

Total Shares2,009

Combined PnL-$191.58

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 85.3¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$368.72	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SE sentrio	Overavg 76.2¢	$256.93	$333.86	+$76.93	40% 438-657 (1095)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 93¢	$111.6	$119.46	+$7.86	55% 843-701 (1544)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 83.3¢	$15.3	$18.29	+$2.99	49% 973-998 (1971)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 24¢	$107.23	$17.88	-$89.35	52% 235-217 (452)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 76¢	$8.75	$8.9	+$0.15	55% 729-596 (1325)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 5.7¢	$64.88	$5.14	-$59.74	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$28.06	$4.88	-$23.18	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$8	$0.9	-$7.1	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 12.3¢	$10.9	$0.4	-$10.5	49% 786-829 (1615)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$2.07	$0.36	-$1.71	38% 99-159 (258)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,210.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$368.72

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$256.93

Value

$333.86

PnL

+$76.93

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$111.6

Value

$119.46

PnL

+$7.86

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$15.3

Value

$18.29

PnL

+$2.99

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$107.23

Value

$17.88

PnL

-$89.35

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.88

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$59.74

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.06

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$23.18

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$7.1

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.9

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$10.5

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.71

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.