Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 195.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$84.39

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 99.6¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,048

Combined PnL+$127.35

Under3 traders

Total Value$29.79

Total Shares1,090

Combined PnL-$42.96

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 97¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$29.38	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 87¢	$579.66	$662.98	+$83.31	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Overavg 89¢	$187.39	$197.86	+$13.06	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$64	$28.49	-$35.51	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 97¢	$24.25	$24.89	+$0.64	49% 973-998 (1971)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 87¢	$6.69	$7.66	+$0.97	46% 200-233 (433)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$5.82	$0.87	-$4.95	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$4.38	$0.43	-$2.5	49% 786-829 (1615)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,117.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.38

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$579.66

Value

$662.98

PnL

+$83.31

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Over

Invested

$187.39

Value

$197.86

PnL

+$13.06

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64

Value

$28.49

PnL

-$35.51

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$24.25

Value

$24.89

PnL

+$0.64

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$6.69

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.97

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.82

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$4.95

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.38

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$2.5

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.