Spread: Magic (-8.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (64%) · Jazz at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Magic16¢Jazz84¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$24.28

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 84.5¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic16%

Jazz85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,494

Combined PnL+$27.6

Magic4 traders

Total Value$48.03

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$51.87

Jazz — 64%Magic — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Magicavg 30.7¢	$682.33	$576.33	+$45.45	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 30.7¢	$398.83	$377.09	-$21.74
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 58.8¢	$165.05	$199.24	+$67.19
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 70.3¢	$477.92	$523.74	+$45.82	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Jazzavg 68.6¢	$435.42	$354.12	-$73.24	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 65¢	$123.09	$145.82	+$22.72	46% 200-233 (433)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 65.3¢	$119.9	$134.72	+$14.82	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 63¢	$32.73	$38.96	+$6.23	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Jazzavg 62.9¢	$25.11	$34.53	+$9.42	39% 233-367 (600)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Magicavg 35¢	$78.88	$30.43	-$48.45	31% 444-971 (1415)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Jazzavg 74¢	$25.14	$26.95	+$1.82	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Magicavg 29.6¢	$30.51	$14.43	-$2.85	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Magicavg 25¢	$1.64	$1.9	+$0.26	49% 973-998 (1971)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Magicavg 38¢	$2.1	$1.27	-$0.83	52% 1914-1760 (3674)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$682.33

Value

$576.33

PnL

+$45.45

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Magic$398.8330.7¢-$21.74

Jazz$165.0558.8¢+$67.19

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$477.92

Value

$523.74

PnL

+$45.82

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$435.42

Value

$354.12

PnL

-$73.24

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$123.09

Value

$145.82

PnL

+$22.72

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$119.9

Value

$134.72

PnL

+$14.82

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$32.73

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$6.23

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydude<$100

Jazz

Invested

$25.11

Value

$34.53

PnL

+$9.42

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

VenusianCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$78.88

Value

$30.43

PnL

-$48.45

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

6512395314597884<$100

Jazz

Invested

$25.14

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$30.51

Value

$14.43

PnL

-$2.85

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.83

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.