Spread: Magic (-7.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (36%) · Jazz at 78¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Magic22¢Jazz78¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$317.12

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 78¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic22%

Jazz78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,239

Combined PnL+$204.91

Magic7 traders

Total Value$849.78

Total Shares3,903

Combined PnL-$522.03

Jazz — 36%Magic — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMagic 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plusti	Jazzavg 66.3¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$260.69	27% 16-43 (59)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 68.1¢	$2.2K	$1.1K	-$55.28	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1ARB<$100	Magicavg 42¢	$580.57	$508.25	-$72.32	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 42¢	$420.75	$340.61	-$80.14
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 62.9¢	$159.82	$167.64	+$7.82
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Magicavg 38.7¢	$948.37	$477.98	-$470.39	53% 305-275 (580)
AN Anon455CTR	Magicavg 33¢	$111.6	$114.98	+$3.38	46% 200-233 (433)
TA takeormakeCTR	Magicavg 21¢	$123.27	$114.47	-$8.8	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Magicavg 41¢	$78.11	$65.19	-$12.92	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Magicavg 33¢	$41.91	$43.18	+$1.27	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Magicavg 32¢	$66.28	$32.1	-$34.18	31% 444-971 (1415)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Jazzavg 69¢	$17.25	$19.5	+$2.25	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 65.8¢	$45	$13.86	-$2.75	49% 786-829 (1615)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Magicavg 41¢	$2.27	$1.88	-$0.39	52% 1914-1760 (3674)

plusti

Jazz

Invested

$1,003.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$260.69

Record

27%

16-43 (59)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$2,165.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$55.28

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$580.57

Value

$508.25

PnL

-$72.32

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Magic$420.7542¢-$80.14

Jazz$159.8262.9¢+$7.82

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Magic

Invested

$948.37

Value

$477.98

PnL

-$470.39

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Anon455CTR

Magic

Invested

$111.6

Value

$114.98

PnL

+$3.38

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

takeormakeCTR

Magic

Invested

$123.27

Value

$114.47

PnL

-$8.8

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$78.11

Value

$65.19

PnL

-$12.92

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$41.91

Value

$43.18

PnL

+$1.27

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

VenusianCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$66.28

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$34.18

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Jazz

Invested

$17.25

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$2.25

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$45

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$2.75

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$2.27

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.39

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMagic 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.