Spread: Magic (-6.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (59%) · Jazz at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Magic19¢Jazz81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$235.64

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 81.5¢

+23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic19%

Jazz82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,464

Combined PnL+$94.8

Magic7 traders

Total Value$536.46

Total Shares2,167

Combined PnL-$330.43

Jazz — 59%Magic — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 71.4¢	$1.4K	$838.08	-$26.26	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 58.8¢	$708.5	$715.96	+$7.46	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 58.8¢	$422.91	$553.81	+$130.9
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 40.5¢	$285.59	$162.15	-$123.44
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Magicavg 28.2¢	$1.3K	$656.1	+$71.26	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 62.5¢	$303.77	$395.86	+$207.31
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 28.2¢	$396.29	$260.24	-$136.05
65 6512395314597884	Jazzavg 61.6¢	$351.41	$374.37	+$22.96	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 56.4¢	$305.42	$355.61	+$50.19	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 76.9¢	$188.95	$186.69	-$2.26	46% 200-233 (433)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Magicavg 45.7¢	$285.92	$153.12	-$132.8	53% 305-275 (580)
alpheclabs2	Jazzavg 71¢	$142	$150	+$8	44% 143-184 (327)
VE VenusianCTR	Magicavg 31.1¢	$108.98	$149.04	+$40.06	31% 444-971 (1415)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Magicavg 32.4¢	$181.99	$109.45	-$72.54	31% 441-967 (1408)
SU suntori<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$50.47	$83.95	+$33.47	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Magicavg 47¢	$132.56	$52.18	-$80.38	32% 444-952 (1396)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$85.05	$42.53	-$42.53	39% 233-367 (600)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 66¢	$29.96	$30.46	+$4.25	49% 973-998 (1971)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Magicavg 46¢	$66.39	$26.7	-$39.69	31% 438-969 (1407)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$35.83	$24.13	+$0.55	49% 786-829 (1615)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$15.47	$19.75	+$4.28	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Magicavg 40¢	$6	$3.45	-$2.55	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.4	-$0.4	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$1,440.28

Value

$838.08

PnL

-$26.26

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$708.5

Value

$715.96

PnL

+$7.46

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Jazz$422.9158.8¢+$130.9

Magic$285.5940.5¢-$123.44

FlaznorpARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,328.62

Value

$656.1

PnL

+$71.26

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Jazz$303.7762.5¢+$207.31

Magic$396.2928.2¢-$136.05

6512395314597884

Jazz

Invested

$351.41

Value

$374.37

PnL

+$22.96

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$305.42

Value

$355.61

PnL

+$50.19

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$188.95

Value

$186.69

PnL

-$2.26

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Magic

Invested

$285.92

Value

$153.12

PnL

-$132.8

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

alpheclabs2

Jazz

Invested

$142

Value

$150

PnL

+$8

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

VenusianCTR

Magic

Invested

$108.98

Value

$149.04

PnL

+$40.06

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

LightParadoxCTR

Magic

Invested

$181.99

Value

$109.45

PnL

-$72.54

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

suntori<$100

Jazz

Invested

$50.47

Value

$83.95

PnL

+$33.47

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

MadridTimeCTR

Magic

Invested

$132.56

Value

$52.18

PnL

-$80.38

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$85.05

Value

$42.53

PnL

-$42.53

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$29.96

Value

$30.46

PnL

+$4.25

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

LimousinCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$66.39

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$39.69

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$35.83

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Jazz

Invested

$15.47

Value

$19.75

PnL

+$4.28

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$2.55

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.