Spread: Magic (-5.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (61%) · Jazz at 73¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Magic27¢Jazz73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 61%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$335.12

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 73¢

+28% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 18 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic27%

Jazz73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz11 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,276

Combined PnL+$472.66

Magic7 traders

Total Value$944.34

Total Shares2,568

Combined PnL-$137.54

Jazz — 61%Magic — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Magic) and the top 1000 (15 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 57.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$37.31	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$104.02
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 45.9¢	$823.64	$682.31	-$141.33
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 57¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$139	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
GL glennyorkshire	Jazzavg 56.7¢	$961.48	$1.2K	+$250.38	50% 72-72 (144)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 58.8¢	$2.8K	$882.43	+$40.45	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Magicavg 38.3¢	$454.84	$499.46	+$44.62	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 38.3¢	$283	$291.56	+$8.56
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$171.84	$207.9	+$36.06
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Magicavg 43.1¢	$561.58	$467.42	-$94.16	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 43.1¢	$448.36	$343.5	-$104.86
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 61.2¢	$113.22	$123.91	+$10.7
LI LimousinCTR	Magicavg 39.4¢	$221.41	$278.02	+$56.61	31% 438-969 (1407)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Magicavg 42.7¢	$324.52	$216.81	-$107.72	53% 305-275 (580)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Magicavg 42¢	$231.63	$200.22	-$31.41	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 42¢	$197.18	$159.62	-$37.56
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 56¢	$34.45	$40.61	+$6.15
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 52.9¢	$117.82	$139.32	+$21.51	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
VeryLucky888CTR	Magicavg 43¢	$149.03	$131.7	-$17.33	52% 597-541 (1138)
nigiri99CTR	Magicavg 43¢	$161.68	$127.84	-$33.84	52% 235-217 (452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 54.6¢	$104.57	$118.67	+$14.1	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Magicavg 34¢	$66.28	$96.5	+$30.22	31% 444-971 (1415)
38 38791873984189	Jazzavg 55.4¢	$595.15	$85.49	-$7.99	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Magicavg 49¢	$117.6	$68.4	-$49.2	39% 233-367 (600)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$24.07	$31.09	+$7.02	31% 441-967 (1408)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$21.12	$25.34	+$4.22	39% 80-127 (207)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Magicavg 47¢	$41.36	$25.08	-$16.28	56% 722-566 (1288)
PA Pan9X	Jazzavg 55.9¢	$104.9	$21.68	+$2.9	49% 786-829 (1615)
SU suntori<$100	Jazzavg 59¢	$7.33	$7.18	+$0.34	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$2.85	$3.57	+$0.72	49% 973-998 (1971)

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2,087.32

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$37.31

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,263.6857.3¢+$104.02

Magic$823.6445.9¢-$141.33

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$1,542.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$139

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

glennyorkshire

Jazz

Invested

$961.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$250.38

Record

50%

72-72 (144)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$2,811.75

Value

$882.43

PnL

+$40.45

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$454.84

Value

$499.46

PnL

+$44.62

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Magic$28338.3¢+$8.56

Jazz$171.8450¢+$36.06

Anon455ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$561.58

Value

$467.42

PnL

-$94.16

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Magic$448.3643.1¢-$104.86

Jazz$113.2261.2¢+$10.7

LimousinCTR

Magic

Invested

$221.41

Value

$278.02

PnL

+$56.61

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Magic

Invested

$324.52

Value

$216.81

PnL

-$107.72

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$231.63

Value

$200.22

PnL

-$31.41

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Both legs:

Magic$197.1842¢-$37.56

Jazz$34.4556¢+$6.15

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$117.82

Value

$139.32

PnL

+$21.51

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

VeryLucky888CTR

Magic

Invested

$149.03

Value

$131.7

PnL

-$17.33

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

nigiri99CTR

Magic

Invested

$161.68

Value

$127.84

PnL

-$33.84

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$104.57

Value

$118.67

PnL

+$14.1

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

VenusianCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$66.28

Value

$96.5

PnL

+$30.22

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

38791873984189

Jazz

Invested

$595.15

Value

$85.49

PnL

-$7.99

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydudeCTR

Magic

Invested

$117.6

Value

$68.4

PnL

-$49.2

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

LightParadox<$100

Jazz

Invested

$24.07

Value

$31.09

PnL

+$7.02

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

NatoAlfista<$100

Jazz

Invested

$21.12

Value

$25.34

PnL

+$4.22

Record

39%

80-127 (207)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$41.36

Value

$25.08

PnL

-$16.28

Record

56%

722-566 (1288)

Pan9X

Jazz

Invested

$104.9

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$2.9

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

suntori<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.33

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.72

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 18 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Magic) and the top 1000 (15 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.