Spread: Magic (-24.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (57%) · Jazz at 99¢ · $607 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
7
Jazz 57%
$607.07
-$6.41
95.7¢ → 99.2¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Jazzavg 93¢ | $273.42 | $288.12 | +$14.7 | 55% 843-701 (1544) |
FL Flaznorp | Jazzavg 98¢ | $244.94 | $238.74 | -$6.2 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Jazzavg 99¢ | $67.86 | $67.84 | -$0.01 | 50% 3334-3292 (6626) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Magicavg 7¢ | $20.58 | $5.88 | -$14.7 | 57% 4155-3181 (7336) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Jazzavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.77 | -$0.13 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Magicavg 2.1¢ | $1.05 | $1.23 | +$0.18 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Magicavg 3¢ | $0.73 | $0.49 | -$0.24 | 21% 63-235 (298) |
Invested
$273.42
Value
$288.12
PnL
+$14.7
Record
55%
843-701 (1544)
Invested
$244.94
Value
$238.74
PnL
-$6.2
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$67.86
Value
$67.84
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
3334-3292 (6626)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$20.58
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$14.7
Record
57%
4155-3181 (7336)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.77
PnL
-$0.13
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.49
PnL
-$0.24
Record
21%
63-235 (298)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.