Spread: Magic (-16.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (71%) · Jazz at 99¢ · $818 held · ended Nov 12

Magic1¢Jazz99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 71%

Total Value

$818.09

Combined PnL

-$29.4

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 98.6¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic1%

Jazz99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$768.19

Total Shares851

Combined PnL+$73.26

Magic2 traders

Total Value$49.9

Total Shares831

Combined PnL-$102.66

Jazz — 71%Magic — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Magic) and the top 1000 (7 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 81¢	$459.78	$530.74	+$70.95	55% 843-701 (1544)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 83¢	$166	$162	-$4	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
TA takeormake<$100	Jazzavg 83¢	$52.29	$58.91	+$6.62	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Magicavg 17¢	$34	$37.6	+$3.6	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1CTR	Magicavg 18.8¢	$118.56	$12.3	-$106.26	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 83¢	$8.66	$8.45	-$0.21	49% 786-829 (1615)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.1	-$0.1	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$459.78

Value

$530.74

PnL

+$70.95

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$166

Value

$162

PnL

-$4

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

takeormake<$100

Jazz

Invested

$52.29

Value

$58.91

PnL

+$6.62

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$34

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$3.6

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1CTR

Magic

Invested

$118.56

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$106.26

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.66

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Magic) and the top 1000 (7 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.