Magic vs. Kings: O/U 247.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$2.1K
-$2.32
95.9¢ → 99.7¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 94.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$45.37 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 98.3¢ | $849.08 | $800.76 | -$35.55 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $77.49 | $71.67 | -$5.82 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 1.6¢ | $10.7 | $6.03 | -$4.67 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.7¢ | $4.05 | $2.32 | -$1.72 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $0.3 | $0.38 | +$0.08 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
Invested
$1,210.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$45.37
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Invested
$849.08
Value
$800.76
PnL
-$35.55
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
RN1<$100Invested
$77.49
Value
$71.67
PnL
-$5.82
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$6.03
PnL
-$4.67
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$1.72
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.38
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.