Magic vs. Kings: O/U 241.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $970 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$969.98
$4.73
93.6¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 93.2¢ | $502.61 | $522.53 | +$19.92 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 97.8¢ | $224.66 | $225.33 | +$0.67 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 90¢ | $184.05 | $200.16 | +$16.12 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 7.6¢ | $52.54 | $21.33 | -$31.21 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.1¢ | $1.39 | $0.63 | -$0.76 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
Invested
$502.61
Value
$522.53
PnL
+$19.92
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Invested
$224.66
Value
$225.33
PnL
+$0.67
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$184.05
Value
$200.16
PnL
+$16.12
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.54
Value
$21.33
PnL
-$31.21
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$1.39
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$0.76
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.