Magic vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 83¢ · $899 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$899.26
$0.04
81.9¢ → 82.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 81¢ | $536.76 | $547.15 | +$10.39 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
 RN1 | Underavg 84¢ | $219.24 | $216.63 | -$2.61 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 19¢ | $115.01 | $105.93 | -$9.08 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $18.53 | $19.08 | +$0.54 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $6.88 | $7.31 | +$0.43 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $2.79 | $3.17 | +$0.37 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
Invested
$536.76
Value
$547.15
PnL
+$10.39
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
RN1Invested
$219.24
Value
$216.63
PnL
-$2.61
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$115.01
Value
$105.93
PnL
-$9.08
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$19.08
PnL
+$0.54
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$6.88
Value
$7.31
PnL
+$0.43
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$2.79
Value
$3.17
PnL
+$0.37
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.