Magic vs. Kings: O/U 235.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.3K
$56.28
93.3¢ → 99.1¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 98.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$10.52 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 90.1¢ | $423.84 | $421.14 | -$2.71 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
 RN1 | Underavg 85.2¢ | $290.13 | $294.52 | +$4.39 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 79.1¢ | $184.76 | $226.07 | +$41.31 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $4.93 | +$3.82 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.3¢ | $3.14 | $1.85 | -$1.3 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 5¢ | $0.25 | $0.5 | +$0.25 | 49% 200-208 (408) |
Invested
$1,370.47
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$10.52
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$423.84
Value
$421.14
PnL
-$2.71
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
RN1Invested
$290.13
Value
$294.52
PnL
+$4.39
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$184.76
Value
$226.07
PnL
+$41.31
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$4.93
PnL
+$3.82
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$3.14
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$1.3
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
200-208 (408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.