Magic vs. Kings: O/U 231.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$6.15

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$669.05

Total Shares891

Combined PnL-$29.6

Over6 traders

Total Value$354.93

Total Shares1,117

Combined PnL+$23.45

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 72¢	$510.75	$357.15	-$22.95	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 68.4¢	$318.56	$311.9	-$6.65	56% 504-395 (899)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 28.8¢	$149.78	$153.32	+$3.54	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 28.4¢	$173.77	$103.78	+$8.19	48% 969-1052 (2021)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$54	$59	+$5	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$16.8	$19.8	+$3	11% 24-189 (213)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 28.4¢	$22	$9.58	+$2.46	49% 450-474 (924)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 28.6¢	$8.19	$9.45	+$1.26	54% 401-336 (737)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$510.75

Value

$357.15

PnL

-$22.95

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$318.56

Value

$311.9

PnL

-$6.65

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$149.78

Value

$153.32

PnL

+$3.54

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$173.77

Value

$103.78

PnL

+$8.19

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$59

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.8

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$3

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22

Value

$9.58

PnL

+$2.46

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.19

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$1.26

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.