Magic vs. Kings: O/U 227.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$18.21

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,093

Combined PnL+$163.27

Over6 traders

Total Value$170.43

Total Shares2,035

Combined PnL-$145.06

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 84.2¢	$920.08	$1.1K	+$163.27	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 20.7¢	$324.18	$316.89	-$7.3	55% 541-436 (977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.7¢	$257.37	$223.82	-$33.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.6¢	$66.81	$93.07	+$26.26
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 73.8¢	$212.22	$234.23	+$22.01	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.8¢	$164.67	$185.09	+$20.42
└ Over leg	Overavg 17.4¢	$47.55	$49.14	+$1.59
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 17.8¢	$62.4	$63.18	+$0.78	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 15.1¢	$48.81	$47.35	+$10.99	49% 498-518 (1016)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 14.8¢	$197.71	$40	-$157.71	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$12.32	$15.84	+$3.52	49% 200-208 (408)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$5.14	$2.26	-$2.88	48% 231-247 (478)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 15.5¢	$1.55	$1.8	+$0.25	54% 445-377 (822)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$920.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$163.27

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$324.18

Value

$316.89

PnL

-$7.3

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Both legs:

Over$257.3720.7¢-$33.56

Under$66.8159.6¢+$26.26

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$212.22

Value

$234.23

PnL

+$22.01

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Under$164.6773.8¢+$20.42

Over$47.5517.4¢+$1.59

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.4

Value

$63.18

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.81

Value

$47.35

PnL

+$10.99

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$197.71

Value

$40

PnL

-$157.71

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.32

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$3.52

Record

49%

200-208 (408)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.14

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$2.88

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.