Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$220.26

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 99.3¢

+66% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,084

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over4 traders

Total Value$670.62

Total Shares2,005

Combined PnL-$802.69

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57.3¢	$2.1K	$3.3K	+$1.2K	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.4K	$642.29	-$773.17	55% 541-436 (977)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 82.6¢	$654.81	$421.09	-$233.72	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 58¢	$220.98	$304.8	+$83.82	48% 231-247 (478)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$170.13	$135.77	-$34.36	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.2¢	$79.96	$95.2	+$15.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.5¢	$90.17	$40.57	-$49.6
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 80¢	$125.53	$70.5	-$44.23	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80¢	$50.4	$50.4	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$48.87	$20.1	-$44.23
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$29.61	$13.46	-$16.15	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$18.5	$10	-$8.5	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 69.6¢	$51.33	$6.52	+$12.01	49% 498-518 (1016)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$9.75	$4.87	-$4.87	54% 445-377 (822)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 50¢	$0.5	$0.8	+$0.3	54% 1691-1468 (3159)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,104.21

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,415.46

Value

$642.29

PnL

-$773.17

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$654.81

Value

$421.09

PnL

-$233.72

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$220.98

Value

$304.8

PnL

+$83.82

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$170.13

Value

$135.77

PnL

-$34.36

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Under$79.9667.2¢+$15.24

Over$90.1744.5¢-$49.6

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$125.53

Value

$70.5

PnL

-$44.23

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Under$50.480¢+$0

Over$48.8748.6¢-$44.23

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.61

Value

$13.46

PnL

-$16.15

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.5

Value

$10

PnL

-$8.5

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$51.33

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$12.01

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.75

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$4.87

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.