Magic vs. Kings: O/U 219.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 61¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$42.8

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 60.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$678.66

Total Shares1,173

Combined PnL-$6.72

Under8 traders

Total Value$672.49

Total Shares1,642

Combined PnL-$36.08

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 58¢	$591.8	$586.5	-$5.3	56% 502-393 (895)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 42¢	$401.95	$373.24	-$28.71	25% 120-354 (474)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44¢	$118.89	$117.54	-$1.35	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$93.58	$92.16	-$1.42	48% 959-1032 (1991)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 58.7¢	$80.5	$79.32	-$1.18	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.7¢	$58.5	$58.82	+$0.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$22	$20.5	-$1.5
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$66.77	$62.8	-$3.97	28% 298-765 (1063)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$44	$43.5	-$0.5	29% 313-784 (1097)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$25.95	$23.57	-$2.38	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$20.49	$21.74	+$1.25	49% 446-472 (918)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$17.6	$17.4	-$0.2	27% 63-170 (233)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$12.92	$12.71	-$0.21	51% 3172-3073 (6245)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$591.8

Value

$586.5

PnL

-$5.3

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$401.95

Value

$373.24

PnL

-$28.71

Record

25%

120-354 (474)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$118.89

Value

$117.54

PnL

-$1.35

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$93.58

Value

$92.16

PnL

-$1.42

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$80.5

Value

$79.32

PnL

-$1.18

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.77

Value

$62.8

PnL

-$3.97

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.95

Value

$23.57

PnL

-$2.38

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.49

Value

$21.74

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.6

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.92

Value

$12.71

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.