Magic vs. Kings: O/U 217.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 58¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 11

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$93.65

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 58¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,658

Combined PnL+$323.59

Over5 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,639

Combined PnL-$229.95

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 55¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$150	8% 8-94 (102)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$39.42	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$19	54% 217-188 (405)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$271.44	56% 504-395 (899)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$741.35	$776.97	+$180.37	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.9¢	$296.15	$478.57	+$234.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$352.43	$298.4	-$54.03
BI biying88888	Underavg 54.2¢	$597.04	$727.32	+$130.28	27% 63-170 (233)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$691.27	$722.99	+$31.72	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.7¢	$481.33	$551.31	+$69.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.9¢	$209.94	$171.68	-$38.26
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$656.19	$628.28	-$19.21	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$284.3	$329.83	+$46.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.1¢	$364.58	$298.45	-$66.13
MA MadridTime	Underavg 48.6¢	$266.96	$310.62	+$43.66	29% 307-750 (1057)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51¢	$182.16	$100.18	-$11.01	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 56.3¢	$91.77	$38.27	-$5.91	49% 450-474 (924)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 38¢	$2.2	$1.86	-$0.35	54% 401-336 (737)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$150

Record

8-94 (102)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$3,404.61

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$39.42

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,709.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$19

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,484.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$271.44

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$741.35

Value

$776.97

PnL

+$180.37

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Under$296.1535.9¢+$234.4

Over$352.4349.6¢-$54.03

biying88888

Under

Invested

$597.04

Value

$727.32

PnL

+$130.28

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$691.27

Value

$722.99

PnL

+$31.72

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Under$481.3346.7¢+$69.98

Over$209.9456.9¢-$38.26

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$656.19

Value

$628.28

PnL

-$19.21

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Under$284.348.7¢+$46.92

Over$364.5853.1¢-$66.13

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$266.96

Value

$310.62

PnL

+$43.66

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$182.16

Value

$100.18

PnL

-$11.01

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.77

Value

$38.27

PnL

-$5.91

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.