Magic vs. Kings: O/U 215.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 71¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$758.7

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 71¢

+60% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,288

Combined PnL+$756.8

Over1 trader

Total Value$20.2

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$1.91

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 57.8¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$286.94	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.3¢	$662.61	$1.2K	+$510.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.8¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$797.5
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 40.1¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	+$49.71	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$35.2	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$822.27	$723.12	-$99.16
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$360.57	$424.52	+$63.95
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$814.68	$811.22	-$3.46	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.2¢	$588.54	$526.69	-$61.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.9¢	$226.14	$284.53	+$58.39
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 46.1¢	$337.49	$486.53	+$149.04	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
LI Limousin	Underavg 45¢	$366.88	$472.86	+$105.99	29% 314-785 (1099)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 44.7¢	$291.6	$436.63	+$145.03	29% 307-750 (1057)
BI biying88888	Underavg 44.9¢	$256.6	$379.72	+$123.12	27% 63-170 (233)
VE Venusian	Underavg 47.7¢	$266.96	$374.61	+$107.65	28% 305-773 (1078)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 45.9¢	$266.96	$343.05	+$76.09	28% 299-766 (1065)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 33.3¢	$126.36	$154.9	+$28.54	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.3¢	$63.63	$89.71	+$26.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$62.73	$65.19	+$2.46
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$18.3	$20.2	+$1.91	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$47.63	$7.98	+$0.32	49% 450-474 (924)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.5	-$0.15	54% 401-336 (737)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,599.37

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$286.94

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Under$662.6137.3¢+$510.55

Over$1,936.7657.8¢-$797.5

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,504

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.71

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,182.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.2

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Over$822.2757.4¢-$99.16

Under$360.5742¢+$63.95

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$814.68

Value

$811.22

PnL

-$3.46

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Over$588.5454.2¢-$61.85

Under$226.1440.9¢+$58.39

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$337.49

Value

$486.53

PnL

+$149.04

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$366.88

Value

$472.86

PnL

+$105.99

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$291.6

Value

$436.63

PnL

+$145.03

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$256.6

Value

$379.72

PnL

+$123.12

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$266.96

Value

$374.61

PnL

+$107.65

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$266.96

Value

$343.05

PnL

+$76.09

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$126.36

Value

$154.9

PnL

+$28.54

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Under$63.6333.3¢+$26.08

Over$62.7351¢+$2.46

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.3

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$1.91

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$47.63

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.