Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Magic vs. Kings: O/U 213.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 36¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$158.76

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 35.5¢

-46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,520

Combined PnL+$474.88

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,110

Combined PnL-$316.12

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 32.7¢	$444.16	$790.29	+$354.38	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 64.5¢	$779.16	$694.88	-$84.29	56% 504-395 (899)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 60.6¢	$584.68	$600.42	+$15.74	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.6¢	$457.35	$422.96	-$34.39
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.6¢	$127.33	$177.47	+$50.13
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 69.1¢	$523.92	$288.04	-$235.88	54% 217-188 (405)
VE Venusian	Underavg 41.2¢	$149.08	$188.08	+$39	28% 305-773 (1078)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 37.9¢	$111.96	$125.42	+$13.46	29% 307-750 (1057)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 39¢	$62.4	$95.2	+$32.8	27% 63-170 (233)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 45¢	$66.74	$88.25	+$21.51	29% 314-785 (1099)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 37¢	$66.74	$78.46	+$11.72	28% 299-766 (1065)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$51.13	$54.02	+$2.89	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 36.9¢	$41.28	$47.59	+$6.31	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$38.33	$34.03	-$4.3	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$23.46	$23.12	-$0.34	49% 450-474 (924)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$12.02	$13.57	+$1.55	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.4	-$0.05	54% 401-336 (737)

RN1

Under

Invested

$444.16

Value

$790.29

PnL

+$354.38

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$779.16

Value

$694.88

PnL

-$84.29

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$584.68

Value

$600.42

PnL

+$15.74

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Over$457.3560.6¢-$34.39

Under$127.3331.6¢+$50.13

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$523.92

Value

$288.04

PnL

-$235.88

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$149.08

Value

$188.08

PnL

+$39

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$111.96

Value

$125.42

PnL

+$13.46

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$62.4

Value

$95.2

PnL

+$32.8

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$88.25

PnL

+$21.51

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$78.46

PnL

+$11.72

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.13

Value

$54.02

PnL

+$2.89

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$41.28

Value

$47.59

PnL

+$6.31

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$38.33

Value

$34.03

PnL

-$4.3

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.46

Value

$23.12

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.02

Value

$13.57

PnL

+$1.55

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.