Magic vs. Kings: O/U 211.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$52.45

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$292.05

Total Shares426

Combined PnL+$3.48

Under4 traders

Total Value$288.42

Total Shares814

Combined PnL+$48.97

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 73.5¢	$930.08	$907.16	-$22.92	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.5¢	$629.77	$587.07	-$42.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 29.6¢	$300.3	$320.09	+$19.79
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 72.7¢	$734.8	$696.74	-$38.06	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72.7¢	$586.28	$527.89	-$58.39
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.3¢	$148.52	$168.85	+$20.33
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 63.4¢	$255.48	$254.05	-$1.43	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.6¢	$94.13	$148.03	+$53.9	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$66.74	$64.03	-$2.71	29% 307-750 (1057)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$66.74	$64.03	-$2.71	28% 305-773 (1078)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 67.1¢	$33.09	$38	+$4.91	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$11.84	$12.32	+$0.48	49% 450-474 (924)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$930.08

Value

$907.16

PnL

-$22.92

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$629.7773.5¢-$42.71

Under$300.329.6¢+$19.79

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$734.8

Value

$696.74

PnL

-$38.06

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Over$586.2872.7¢-$58.39

Under$148.5230.3¢+$20.33

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$255.48

Value

$254.05

PnL

-$1.43

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$94.13

Value

$148.03

PnL

+$53.9

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$64.03

PnL

-$2.71

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$64.03

PnL

-$2.71

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$33.09

Value

$38

PnL

+$4.91

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.84

Value

$12.32

PnL

+$0.48

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.