Magic vs. Kings: O/U 207.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 77¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.1K
$0.51
80.3¢ → 77¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 78.2¢ | $355.2 | $347.31 | -$7.89 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 80.8¢ | $291.38 | $279.39 | -$11.99 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
 RN1 | Overavg 83.2¢ | $241.07 | $196.3 | -$12.77 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Underavg 20¢ | $139.28 | $174.07 | +$34.79 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $68.88 | $67.2 | -$1.68 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $1.11 | $1.17 | +$0.06 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$355.2
Value
$347.31
PnL
-$7.89
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$291.38
Value
$279.39
PnL
-$11.99
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
RN1Invested
$241.07
Value
$196.3
PnL
-$12.77
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$139.28
Value
$174.07
PnL
+$34.79
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$68.88
Value
$67.2
PnL
-$1.68
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.