Magic vs. Kings: O/U 205.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$2.7K
$0.62
86.3¢ → 82¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 87¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$34.08 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 86.2¢ | $867.57 | $887.41 | +$19.84 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 85.5¢ | $374 | $370 | -$4 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 15.4¢ | $108.22 | $126.72 | +$18.5 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $67.61 | $68.03 | +$0.42 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 83.6¢ | $67.69 | $67.63 | -$0.06 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
Invested
$1,259.63
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$34.08
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$867.57
Value
$887.41
PnL
+$19.84
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$374
Value
$370
PnL
-$4
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
RN1CTRInvested
$108.22
Value
$126.72
PnL
+$18.5
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$67.61
Value
$68.03
PnL
+$0.42
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$67.69
Value
$67.63
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.