Magic vs. Kings: O/U 203.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$2.07

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 82.5¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$535.97

Total Shares564

Combined PnL+$1.82

Under1 trader

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.25

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 89¢	$450.45	$459.02	+$8.57	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 88.7¢	$659.82	$448.25	+$8.54	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Over leg	Overavg 88.7¢	$306.88	$299.29	-$11.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 11.6¢	$128.54	$148.96	+$20.42
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 87¢	$289	$309.01	+$20	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 87¢	$220.11	$223.91	+$3.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 9.3¢	$68.89	$85.1	+$16.21
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 89¢	$374.39	$202.68	+$10.19	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Over leg	Overavg 89¢	$157.62	$154.08	+$0.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 10.4¢	$38.87	$48.61	+$9.74
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 93¢	$83.7	$76.95	-$6.75	64% 180-100 (280)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$5	$5.25	+$0.25	49% 450-474 (924)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$450.45

Value

$459.02

PnL

+$8.57

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$659.82

Value

$448.25

PnL

+$8.54

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Over$306.8888.7¢-$11.88

Under$128.5411.6¢+$20.42

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$289

Value

$309.01

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$220.1187¢+$3.79

Under$68.899.3¢+$16.21

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$374.39

Value

$202.68

PnL

+$10.19

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Over$157.6289¢+$0.46

Under$38.8710.4¢+$9.74

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$83.7

Value

$76.95

PnL

-$6.75

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.