Magic vs. Kings: O/U 199.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$157.46

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 93.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares816

Combined PnL+$141.45

Under3 traders

Total Value$64.32

Total Shares839

Combined PnL+$16

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 92.8¢	$932.75	$1.1K	+$142.17	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
RN1	Overavg 94¢	$134.42	$133.71	-$0.71	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 5.7¢	$42.1	$55.78	+$13.68	56% 504-395 (899)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$5.16	$6.64	+$1.48	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.06	$1.91	+$0.85	53% 5552-4939 (10491)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$932.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$142.17

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

RN1

Over

Invested

$134.42

Value

$133.71

PnL

-$0.71

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.1

Value

$55.78

PnL

+$13.68

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.16

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$1.48

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.85

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.