Magic vs. Kings: O/U 197.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 98¢ · $785 held · ended Nov 11

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$785

Combined PnL

$19.12

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 98.2¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$733.94

Total Shares757

Combined PnL-$11.9

Under3 traders

Total Value$51.48

Total Shares425

Combined PnL+$31.03

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 95.5¢	$424.2	$397.58	-$26.62	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 89¢	$321.65	$336.36	+$14.72	55% 541-436 (977)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 4.5¢	$18	$48.4	+$30.4	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 10.9¢	$1.96	$2.18	+$0.22	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 6.6¢	$0.49	$0.9	+$0.41	48% 1027-1110 (2137)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$424.2

Value

$397.58

PnL

-$26.62

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$321.65

Value

$336.36

PnL

+$14.72

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$30.4

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.