Magic vs. Kings: O/U 195.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$2.8K
-$10.17
94¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 93¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$93.32 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 96.4¢ | $899.11 | $794.58 | -$102.11 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $24 | $24.6 | +$0.6 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.6¢ | $2.92 | $3.28 | +$0.36 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Underavg 1.2¢ | $1.2 | $0.55 | -$0.65 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 2.9¢ | $2.08 | $0.39 | -$1.69 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
Invested
$1,841.06
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$93.32
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Invested
$899.11
Value
$794.58
PnL
-$102.11
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$24
Value
$24.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$0.36
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.65
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$1.69
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.