Magic vs. Kings: O/U 193.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$1.4K
$18.48
95.7¢ → 94.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 95¢ | $960.63 | $979.35 | +$18.72 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 97.5¢ | $386.23 | $382 | -$4.23 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.7¢ | $62.46 | $57.11 | -$5.35 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 2.4¢ | $10.52 | $18.75 | +$8.23 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.2¢ | $2.56 | $3.4 | +$0.84 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $1.98 | $2.24 | +$0.26 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
Invested
$960.63
Value
$979.35
PnL
+$18.72
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$386.23
Value
$382
PnL
-$4.23
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$62.46
Value
$57.11
PnL
-$5.35
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$10.52
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$8.23
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.84
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.